Saturday 27th July’s Racecards for UK & Ireland

Whilst there are no genuine shortcuts outside of getting someone else’s opinion (for better or worse), there are facilitators and differentiators. Boasting the unusual accolade of being the only UK racecourse not to have a grandstand, Bangor-On-Dee stands alone amongst Bolts Up Daily the wider racecourse population. North Wales’ solitary racecourse, racing has taken place on the banks of the Dee for 160 years. Nube Negra was possibly the unlucky loser story of the race, meeting traffic whilst gaining lengths over the final half a furlong.

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The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year’s Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge. Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.

Lingfield Tips

The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form. Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he’d very much need to. Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one’s recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, “hold my drink”… While the accuracy of Free Horse Racing Tips cannot be guaranteed, Get Your Tips Out have a proven track record of successful predictions.

Horse Racing Tips: A 7/1 NAP tops our best Kempton bets tonight

Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys’ veins for the first rising tape of the week. The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it’s going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…

Tips & Insights

Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.

Ayr Gold Cup Past Winners

Coeur Sublime is another dark horse at a price, and Gabynako a third, in a trappy and open-looking Arkle. Brave Seasca, who has progressed through soft ground handicaps but was no match for Edwardstone last time, is probably a little out of his depth. A smallish field of nine sets the tone for a week where the non-handicaps are expected to be shallow affairs runners wise in the main, with the dominance of those aforementioned superyard chickens perhaps coming home to roost a little. Anyway, macro questions like that don’t belong before an obstacle has been cleared so let’s get back to business.

• William Henry beat Topofthegameinto fourth place at Kempton in January but that fast track and a lack of pace in the race were against the selection and he should turn the tables.
• Their French form suggests both will be waited with to varying degrees.
• This will be tougher though the extra distance should mean she’ll be able to get into a better rhythm than was the case when midfield in last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.
• It is run over the exact same Gold Cup distance, which offers an interesting angle for viewers.
• The selection’s stablemate Hamish won this in 2022 and is in his element when the mud is flying.

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Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.

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RELIEF RALLY looks the one to beat after a hugely promising effort when second at Newbury a fortnight ago. That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May. Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early. In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices. Nevertheless, Messrs. Hobbs and Meade are 0 from 30, three places, which is hard to overlook.

Showcase Trophy Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)

I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.

They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.

Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.

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The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels. Get Your Tips Out is known as one of the top free tipsters in the horse racing industry.

• The best tipsGet the very best advice direct from the horse’s mouth via our expert tips page, featuring free tips as well as exclusive advice from some of the best judges in the business.
• That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival.
• 1m 7f  of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior?
• Making prudent decisions based on a combination of research, intuition, and rational thinking is pivotal in navigating the unpredictable nature of horse racing.
• Winner of all four starts to date – two bumpers, a maiden hurdle and a Grade 2 hurdle – it is worth noting that while never seeing a rival in the two hurdle starts he took a lead in both of his bumpers before strolling home unchallenged.
• CAPADANO (each-way) has had a better prep this season and can improve on last year’s showing in the Grand National.

We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.

• Free Horse Racing Tips are tips and predictions on upcoming horse racing events that are shared for free by tipsters.
• His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed.
• If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
• He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
• Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.
• Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022.
• He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier.

• The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 195 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners.
• Qirat is a worthy favourite having won a hot contest at Goodwood with a bit up his sleeve.
• He could run quite well without challenging the podium places.
• Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December.
• But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
• The favourite, and very short at that, is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Mrs S Ricci, and he is called Gaelic Warrior.

Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good. Grosvenor Sport is offering new customers the chance to get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on horse racing. Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length. “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Jockey Statistics

Hovering over  the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race  / Closing) format. Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance. Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge. Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival has been equally as magical as day 1, as we really have been treated to some incredible action. The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.

Much has been made of the wind operation that prevented him returning to racecourse action until Newbury last month, but it was a minor procedure that he underwent. Altior showed the problem was behind him when soon putting Politologue to the sword that day and winning by four lengths. This was a fine display – close to his best previous form – as Politologue had been in the ascendancy with three smart wins in top class races to his credit.

Those rated higher than 140 won 47 races and lost a relatively small 54 points at SP and 2.75 points at BSP. Noel Meade has an infamous record at the Festival and, while he’s 0 from 13 in this section of races, his Road To Riches was third in both the 2015 Gold Cup and the 2016 Ryanair Chase. Paul Nicholls is still the winning-most Open Grade 1 trainer in the past decade, with ten such victories to his name.

At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.

The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.

Of course, we know about the dominance of Irish winners at recent Festivals but there is still plenty on which to chew in relation to possible value edges. Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures. As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last day winners. This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even. Of course, most recently Il Etait Temps won ‘that’ race in which HD dived and FV bombed. Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third.

If you don’t believe me, I’ve copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.

• This was a fine display – close to his best previous form – as Politologue had been in the ascendancy with three smart wins in top class races to his credit.
• And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation.
• Lantry Lady, who falls into the “could be anything” category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground.
• He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance.
• You can spend a wonderful afternoon or evening with friends, grab a drink, have a meal and, if you want, place a bet.
• As an eight-year-old he’s oodles of upside in this sphere and is clearly with the right man.

More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he’d saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter. 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival. 13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out. All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing). The only slight reservation I can think of – and it is really slight – is that he’s not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he’s been well on top each time, we don’t know how he hurdles under pressure. By honing discipline and patience in your wagering strategies, you not only enhance your chances of long-lasting success but also develop a deeper understanding of the intricate world of horse racing.

It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.

• He was thumped in the Champion Bumper here a year ago (soft), however, so just might not be good enough.
• Betfair and Paddy Power are jointly out in front here, with the best in-play features for race betting.
• Of course, you need to be quick off the mark when you get your tips through, because the longer you wait, the worse your odds will get as more punters flock to back the tip.
• Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.
• Invictus Gold beat nothing at Newmarket but could not have done it any easier.

He’s been aggressively ascendant, rising from a rating of 139 at season start to his current 156; but that still leaves him with a stone and more to find when Honeysuckle’s mares’ allowance is incorporated. The traditional pipe opener restored to its 1.30 tapes up slot and, after much hokey cokeying amongst the mega stable entries we have our list of runners and riders fixed. It’s a yes for Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon but a ‘see you tomorrow’ for Sir Gerhard. If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest. There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect.

It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.

Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‘without the favourite’ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‘without’ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.

He was unlucky at Haydock last Saturday and a return to this trip will suit. TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited. She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August. Sunracing’s columnist Andrew Balding saddles likely favourite Brighton Boy and he was very strong at the finish at York. She’s bred to handle the ground and the only concern would be her 100-day absence, but, given the big money on offer, she will surely be primed for this.

No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices. On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds. His stable mate, Beatthebullet, is more than two stone ‘wrong’ with the top rated of these and appears to be the much maligned ‘social runner’. In that earlier preview, I found it impossible to oppose Honeysuckle. I still do, though after an electric gear change to settle the race last time she didn’t really stretch away as it appeared she might.

Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.