Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
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More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he’d saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter. 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival. 13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out. All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing). The only slight reservation I can think of – and it is really slight – is that he’s not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he’s been well on top each time, we don’t know how he hurdles under pressure. By honing discipline and patience in your wagering strategies, you not only enhance your chances of long-lasting success but also develop a deeper understanding of the intricate world of horse racing.
Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23
Faivoir was pulled-up that day and has already proved the form all wrong with a good second behind Gin Coco, while the well-held eighth Rare Middleton has since won by five lengths doing handstands off just 2lb lower at Doncaster. With 59 racecourses in Britain and 26 in Ireland, you’re almost certainly not far away from a local track, and tickets for regular meetings (when spectators are allowed) can often be as low as £10. They are amazing, beautiful, unpredictable and so clever. They are lean, mean, powerful machines, athletes that can get to 60 kilometres an hour from a standing start in just five strides. We have built the fastest cars and bikes but the racehorse is pure nature. Every horse has his or her own character and personality.
Oh, and Happy St. Paddy’s Day!
A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab’s jumping holds up, I think he’ll win, and if it doesn’t I think Jonbon will win. I don’t really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven’t already played, I don’t think. Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He’s unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he’s kicked to the kerb everything he’s faced hitherto.
Southwell (AW) Tips
Mitbaahy opened his campaign with a close second at Nottingham at the start of May before going one better against three opponents for a valuable conditions stakes over five furlongs at Hamilton Park the following month. In the Coral Cup, Fixe Le Kap can run a big race at a big price. He has had problems this season but is back in top form at home and has the soft ground that he relishes. I have spoken to Daryl Jacob and he is going to ride a patient race, sneaking into contention, and he is one of the best in the weighing room at that. You could not wish to meet a nicer guy than Daryl, and there is nobody better at holding up a horse, so I have given him his riding instructions and told him to creep into the race. The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
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O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple. The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip. In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.
Relegate wins the Champion Bumper
And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up. The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup. That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.
Put The Kettle On – Mares’ Chase – 5/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 11/2 PP (NRNB)
The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition. A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.
Wolverhampton Tips
If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool. ‘4’ signifies an early front runner, ‘3’ a prominent racer early, ‘2’ a midfield runner, and ‘1’ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).
Teddy price looks early gift
- A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.
- Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.
- The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her.
- We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.
- He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
Breeders’ Cup 2024: Three European raiders form a 68/1 treble on Friday
Before being sidelined last autumn, he was in the saddle when Envoi Allen stretched his unbeaten record to nine races in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Russell was forced to miss the bulk of the latest National Hunt season – including the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – and also sat out last month’s Galway Festival. Formerly trained on the Flat by David Menuisier, the grey made a successful debut over hurdles at Punchestown last month and was among the leading contenders on his return to the level. For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules. GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
- Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh.
- Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term.
- And you have to be imaginative to see the horses lower down the lists beating the ones at the top.
- The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists.
- He’s a fine horse, very consistent and seems to be thriving.
- MT – Ground important for Teahupoo who wants “proper soft”.
How to quantify trainer form pre-Cheltenham?
- “He’s run very well, he showed a lot of speed early on and the stiff finish just caught up with him in the last 100 yards,” said the trainer.
- Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.
- There are multiple leading jockeys in the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap over the last 13 renewals with Tom Eaves, William Buick and Silvestre De Sousa having all won the race two times.
- Then we head to Wales for the two meetings on Tuesday with good prize money on offer at Bangor and further south for Chepstow.
- This year marks the Centenary of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
- I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.
- With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164.
- If you are scanning a race, spot a horse making its handicap debut (or even its second run in a handicap), and you don’t make a note to look a tad more closely at said runner, more fool you.
Nicholls’ 1 from 30 record since 2013 is equally difficult to excuse. And in terms of jumping acuity, he has yet to make a serious mistake in three chases. True, all were small field affairs, but the Arkle, too, will quite likely cut up to a handful of contenders. Still, those fences need to be jumped, and he has to arrive pristine at Prestbury. The leftfield option is First Flow, who was exhilarating at Ascot last time. He’d need supplementing, very likely, but he’d also need to improve another eight pounds on current ratings – less likely.
If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.
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- The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown.
- And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who – let’s not forget – had never won the QMCC prior to 2022.
- The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time.
Lingfield Tips
Her market danger, Allegorie De Vassy, has a propensity to jump right at the fences, which is a cause for concern at this left-handed circuit. The County Hurdle is often won by a Graded performer, most notably last season’s subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner State Man. His trainer, Willie Mullins, has landed this prize twice in the previous three runnings and boasts huge claims again this year. HUNTERS YARN is the clear pick for the handler, arriving for this handicap debut after an effortless Listed Hurdle success at Navan last month. The Fame And Glory gelding has a smart turn of foot and could be leniently treated from an opening handicap mark of 147.
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
- Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months.
- A horse like Fakir D’Oudairies, who is 20/1 NRNB in a place because he’s more likely to fly Ryanair, might be a feasible hail mary in a race loaded with if’s and but’s.
- This is one of the oldest sports in the UK by far, and interest in it has stayed steady throughout the years.
- Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.
- Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark.
- Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and “mullered” some lesser horses at Doncaster last time.
- Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form.
- That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places!
No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices. On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds. His stable mate, Beatthebullet, is more than two stone ‘wrong’ with the top rated of these and appears to be the much maligned ‘social runner’. In that earlier preview, I found it impossible to oppose Honeysuckle. I still do, though after an electric gear change to settle the race last time she didn’t really stretch away as it appeared she might.
Then, more recently, Chacun Pour Soi was returned 8/13 but could only return to the 3rd place area in the winners’ enclosure. Since then, Energumene was sent off at 5/2 and 6/5 in his two recent winning years. A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo’s to lose for much of the season. And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who – let’s not forget – had never won the QMCC prior to 2022.
Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter Bolts Up Daily of the race. All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Baron Bolt in 2018, winning for Paul Cole at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Cameron Noble. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 4 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Ayr Gold Cup remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‘without the favourite’ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‘without’ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.
David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.
